Abstract

Uncertainty is inherent in avalanche forecasting, yet it is not communicated in a consistent way in public avalanche forecasts. Avalanche forecast users could benefit from clearer and more transparent communication of uncertainty. Developing a systematic approach for communicating uncertainty has potential to enhance the forecast in ways that are useful to a diverse range of forecast users with differing needs.

Complementing the results from our survey examining the perspective of forecast users (Latosuo et al., 2024), this research focuses on how avalanche forecasters conceptualize and evaluate uncertainty. An in-depth understanding of forecasters’ current practices and challenges is critical for developing effective and feasible ways to communicate uncertainty when it is a consequential part of the conditions. To address this research need, we conducted qualitative semi-structured interviews with 30 North American avalanche forecasters in the spring 2025. Additionally, we observed numerous forecast team meetings to learn about the specific workflow and communication cultures of participating organizations.

Our findings highlight that forecasters carry out nuanced daily examinations of uncertainty, and this information plays a fundamental role in internal conversations of the forecasting team. Spatial and temporal scales matter; large forecast regions amplify spatial uncertainty, while publishing lead times affect forecasters’ certainty about their assessment. The type of avalanche problems adds to the inherent uncertainty in the hazard condition, as do operational constraints and the influence of fatigue or stress on forecasters. Certain conditions prompt explicit uncertainty messaging in the forecasts; however, how forecasters implement the messaging varies considerably.

This research offers valuable insight into professional forecasters’ perspective on uncertainty and the challenging trade-offs forecasters juggle when creating forecast products for diverse audiences. Our results inform the broader goal of designing an improved uncertainty communication framework. The lessons learned are applicable to all avalanche practitioners who communicate hazard conditions to non-expert audiences.

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