Project Overview
Since its introduction in 2010, the Conceptual Model of Avalanche Hazard (CMAH) has provided a structured framework for avalanche forecasting in North America. Although widely adopted, the CMAH does not offer explicit guidance on how to assess avalanche problems or link them to danger ratings, leaving these decisions largely to expert judgment. This reliance can introduce inconsistencies in public risk communication, especially in complex or data-sparse situations. This project brings together a series of studies—spanning both quantitative and qualitative methods—to examine how forecasters apply danger ratings and avalanche problems in operational settings.
Statistical analyses using conditional inference trees examined how key CMAH components—such as the size and likelihood of avalanche problems—influence danger rating assignments, while highlighting unexplained variability. Another study linked snowpack and weather model data with operational forecasts to explore how avalanche problem choices varied under different conditions. While some problems aligned with expected physical indicators (e.g., snowfall for storm slabs, slab properties for persistent slabs), others—like wind slabs and cornices—showed more variability, reflecting data gaps and ambiguity in definitions. Complementary interviews and concept mapping with experienced forecasters revealed broader influences on decisions, including communication goals, uncertainty, and forecast system design.
Together, the findings highlight three key challenges: variability between forecasters, imprecision in existing standards, and the contextual nature of hazard assessments. Recommendations include clarifying guidance in standards, developing evidence-based decision aids, improving forecaster training and collaboration, and expanding model-based decision support tools. This research lays the groundwork for more objective, transparent, and consistent avalanche hazard assessment and communication in Canada.
Involved Researchers
- Simon Horton
- Taylor ?
- Moses ?
- Heather ?
- Stan Nowak
- Bret ?
- Grant Statham
Partner Organizations
Project Funding
Relevant Publications
Is it a problem? Takeaways from research into the use an effectiveness of avalanche problems
Designing for ambiguity in sensemaking: Visual analytics in risk analysis and prediction
Understanding Avalanche Problem Assessments: A Concept Mapping Study with Public Avalanche Forecasters
Examining the operational use of avalanche problems with decision trees and model-generated weather and snowpack variables
Linking avalanche problem types to modelled weather and snowpack conditions: A pilot study in Glacier National Park, British Columbia
Exploring the link between the Conceptual Model of Avalanche Hazard and the North American Public Avalanche Danger Scale
Establishing the link between the conceptual model of avalanche hazard and the North American Avalanche danger scale: Initial explorations from Canada
