Abstract

Public avalanche forecasters in Canada increasingly rely on snowpack models to augment manual observations for avalanche hazard assessments, but several studies have recently demonstrated that precipitation inputs are one of the key sources of uncertainty in snowpack simulations. To address this challenge, this study evaluates the impact of different precipitation data on snowpack simulations at 28 weather stations across western Canada. We compare the simulated snowpack height (HS) and structure driven by four different precipitation data sources with of a reference simulation constrained by daily observed snowpack height using linear mixed effects regression models. Our results show that all simulations overestimate HS when compared to the reference simulations, but there are regional differences. Observed structural differences in the simulates snowpacks are consistent with differences in HS. The results of this study can help Canadian avalanche forecasters better understand the strengths and weaknesses of different precipitation products for snowpack simulations.

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