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Abstract

Uncertainty is inherent in avalanche forecasting. On some days, the available evidence provides a clear picture of the existing hazard situation, while on other days, various unknowns can make it difficult to understand the conditions. Yet, uncertainty is currently not communicated in a consistent way in avalanche forecasts across the world, and to our knowledge, no research has explored how forecast users understand and respond to uncertainty information. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a detailed online survey in collaboration with the Colorado Avalanche Information Center in the spring of 2024. The core of the survey consisted of an exercise where participants were presented with simplified but realistic avalanche forecasts that included different amounts of information about uncertainty from various sources. For each forecast scenario, participants were asked to assess the level of uncertainty in the forecast, and how the presented information would affect their approach to a typical backcountry trip. We also asked questions about the understandability, usefulness, and trustworthiness of forecasts that include uncertainty information. Our analysis of the responses from 1313 participants suggests that adding explicit statements about the magnitude and characteristics of the uncertainty in the forecast has a significant impact on readers’ estimated amount of uncertainty, which then influences their decisions about whether to enter the backcountry. Our results also show that including this information increases trust in avalanche forecast centers as reliable sources of hazard information. These insights support the inclusion of uncertainty information in avalanche forecasts. Our study contributes to the growing body of applied research that aims to help avalanche forecasting centers improve the effectiveness of their communication products by explicitly testing different formats and approaches.