2024
Project Overview
Motivation:
Uncertainty is inherent in avalanche forecasting which attempts to predict and communicate the state of dynamic and variable avalanche conditions so that people traveling in this environment can make informed choices about their personal risk management. Besides the inherent randomness and the complexity of the avalanche phenomenon, the way information is collected, processed, and shared introduces additional uncertainty in the forecast. Yet, uncertainty is not communicated in a consistent way in avalanche forecasts across the world.
Knowledge gap:
Despite the importance of uncertainty in the avalanche hazard context, there is very limited research about its function within avalanche risk communication, and to our knowledge, no research has ever explored how forecast users understand and respond to uncertainty information.
Methods & timeline
To investigate the challenges and opportunities for improved uncertainty communication, this three-phase project uses mixed methods approach to study both the users and the producers of public avalanche forecasts. Initial baseline research studied how the public understands and responds to uncertainty information through an online survey in the winter 2023-24. To build our knowledge on how uncertainty influences professional practice, we conducted qualitative semi-structured interviews with 34 North American avalanche forecasters in the spring of 2025. The final stage focuses on the collaborative design and evaluation of uncertainty communication prototypes with the intention to provide recommendations for avalanche risk communication practices in 2026.
Involved Researchers
- Eeva Latosuo
- Pascal Haegeli
- Julie Demuth (NSF-National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO)
- Lyn Bartram
- Ethan Greene (Colorado Avalanche Information Center)
Project Funding
Relevant Publications
